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Less Flights... More Fatalities? Airline Accident Fatalities Rise in 2020

Despite a historic drop in airline activity in 2020 because of COVD-19-related travel restrictions, fatal accidents in 2020 were just as high as in recent years with normal commercial flying activity.

2019 had four-to-five times the number of flights flown in 2020, and 2020 saw more fatalities.

Globally, there were 12 fatal airline accidents in 2020, resulting in deaths of 332 passengers and crew compared with 22 fatal accidents and 297 fatalities in 2019 when the commercial airline activity was operating a a normal level in 2019.

There were four jet accidents in 2020, three of which were the result of poorly planned and badly executed approaches to serviceable aircraft in conditions that should not have been a problem for the crews.

These accidents were Pegasus Airlines Flight 2193 at Istanbul on February 5, Pakistan International Airlines Flight 8303 that crashed in Model Colony May 22, and Air India Express Flight 1344 that overran a runway on August 7. These accidents alone resulted in 121 passengers and crew fatalities.

The unusual factor that sets 2020 apart from previous years' accidents are the number of accidental shootdowns that occured. The fact that there are plural is troubling.

The worst accident of 2020 involved the shootdown of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752 on January 8. The Boeing 737-800 was shot down shortly after takeoff from Tehran Imam Khomeini International Airport by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp when it was misidentified as a hostile aircraft. All 176 passengers and crew on board were killed.

Another misidentified aircraft was shot down on May 4 by the Ethiopian National Defense Force resulting in six fatalities. The African Express Airways Embraer Brasilia was carrying medical supplies and mosquito nets on a medical relief charter for the COVID-19 effort.

While in both cases, effective communication between ATC and military communications could have prevented the fatal mistakes, the politically unstable conditions in the countries where both events took place are likely to continue. Airlines will need to decide whether or not to continue operating through conflict zones or areas with higher security.

Whenever an accident occurs in commercial aviation, the situation surrounding the incident is thoroughly evaluated to determine what caused the accident and how the industry can prevent it in the future.

Seeing as most of the events were results of crew or communications errors, no aircraft parts have been called into question of structural integrity for the aforementioned incidents. 

For now, airlines are continuing to maintain their aircraft in accordance to their rigorous maintenance schedules and parameters.

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